Actuals and variance

Entering actuals closes the loop: it measures how accurate the forecast was and feeds the accuracy metrics that alerting uses.

Pages: Forecasting -> Actuals (/forecasting/actuals), Forecasting -> Import Data (/forecasting/import)

Step 1: Open the actuals page

1. In the left sidebar, click Forecasting -> Actuals.
2. The page defaults to your default location and its most recent forecast week. Change either dropdown to move around.

If your POS data flows into the warehouse, sales actuals may already be present. Enter actuals manually only for the days that are missing.

Step 2: Enter actuals

1. Click Enter Actuals. A drawer opens.

2. Fill in the fields:

   Field	Notes
   Location	Pre-selected
   Date	The business day the numbers belong to
   Net Sales ($)	Required
   Guest Count	Optional
   Check Count	Optional
   Gross Sales ($)	Optional

3. Click + Add Another Day to keep adding days in one batch.

4. Click Save X Actuals.

Step 3: Read the variance table

The table compares forecast against actual for the selected week:

Row	Compares
Sales	Forecast sales against actual sales
Labor	Forecast labor cost against actual labor cost
Labor hours	Forecast hours against actual hours

Cells are color coded: green where the actual came in above the forecast for sales, red where it fell short. A variance within roughly plus or minus five percent is a healthy weekly result.

Import in bulk

Use Forecasting -> Import Data to load history or a full week of actuals at once.

1. Go to Forecasting -> Import Data.
2. Choose what you are importing and the location.
3. Upload the CSV and map the columns to the expected fields (date, net sales, guest count, and so on).
4. Review the preview, then confirm the import.

Importing at least a year of daily history is what makes the Smart Forecast YoY model useful for a new location.

What actuals unlock

• Variance analysis on the forecasting dashboard.
• Rolling forecast accuracy (MAPE and bias) used by the forecast-quality alert rules, see Notifications overview.
• Better projections next week, because most models read from the same actuals.

Troubleshooting

Symptom	Fix
Variance table is empty	No published forecast for the selected week
Actual saved to the wrong day	Edit the row and correct the date; the table recalculates
Accuracy alerts never fire	Actuals are missing for most days; the rules need a populated history